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Latest News


Economic forecasts are too rosy. That can be costly

4 August 2020, 1:00 am
Over-optimism at the IMF and the World Bank can have serious consequences

Bridgewater faces losses and a lawsuit

1 August 2020, 1:00 am
The most successful hedge-fund firm of all time hits a rough patch

Has India’s moratorium on loan payments delayed the pain for banks?

1 August 2020, 1:00 am
It has shielded borrowers; but some banks may struggle once defaults are realised

In emerging markets, short-term panic gives way to long-term worry

1 August 2020, 1:00 am
Emergency measures have helped keep economies alive, but could have nasty side-effects in the long term

The SPAC hack

1 August 2020, 1:00 am
The latest twist in the power struggle between Silicon Valley and Wall Street

The EU’s recovery fund revives a debate on common taxes

1 August 2020, 1:00 am
But for every tax proposed, there is a national veto

The fear of robots displacing workers has returned

30 July 2020, 3:51 pm
But do not expect tech-induced lay-offs just yet

The price of gold surges to an all-time high

30 July 2020, 3:51 pm
And the dollar weakens against the euro

Emmanuel Farhi has died at the age of 41

30 July 2020, 1:00 am
The economist was one of the brightest minds of his generation

Banks lose out to capital markets when it comes to credit provision

25 July 2020, 1:00 am
That explains the Fed’s response to the latest economic crisis

A shift from paper to virtual cash will empower central banks

23 July 2020, 3:51 pm
Officially issued digital currencies could help usher in negative interest rates

Ant Group announces plans to list in Shanghai and Hong Kong

23 July 2020, 3:51 pm
It becomes the latest in a trail of listings

Unusually, copper and gold prices are rising in tandem

23 July 2020, 3:51 pm
An uncertain and uneven recovery explains their skyward leap

Why real-time economic data need to be treated with caution

23 July 2020, 3:51 pm
The measures are not a proxy for overall economic activity

Chapter 11 is no longer a haven for deadbeat debtors

23 July 2020, 3:51 pm
These days secured creditors are in control

Housing was the business cycle

18 July 2020, 1:00 am
Residential investment is not the macroeconomic force it used to be

The threat of irrelevance spurs insurers to consider new ideas

18 July 2020, 1:00 am
Insurers are rethinking their approach to systemic risks

China’s world-beating growth rate of...3.2%

18 July 2020, 1:00 am
Its economic rebound is impressive but uneven

The row over taxing tech firms heats up

18 July 2020, 1:00 am
America plans tariffs in retaliation for France’s digital-services tax

How big is China’s economy? Let the Big Mac decide

18 July 2020, 1:00 am
Our index reckons China’s GDP is bigger than the World Bank thinks

What Wall Street’s results tell you about America’s economy

18 July 2020, 1:00 am
The panic has been calmed, and the economic pain deferred. But uncertainty still abounds

Why globalists and frontier-market investors love Vietnam

18 July 2020, 1:00 am
It is cheap, and a refuge from the Sino-American trade-and-technology war

The pandemic revives ultra-safe European bonds

11 July 2020, 1:00 am
The European Commission could soon become a big player in capital markets

Some economies are bouncing back. But recoveries can easily go wrong

11 July 2020, 1:00 am
Our analysis shows just how fragile consumer confidence can be

Europeans quibble about long trading hours: the finance edition

9 July 2020, 3:52 pm
Europe’s stockmarkets are open for longer than anywhere else

Americans need more guidance from the Fed

9 July 2020, 3:52 pm
Spelling out the future path of policy would help

More corporate defaults seem to be on the way

9 July 2020, 3:52 pm
Despite a mini-boom in the bond market, defaults are priced in

The race to lead the WTO begins

9 July 2020, 3:52 pm
Picking a winner could get messy

Stockmarket mania comes to China again. Can it last this time?

7 July 2020, 1:00 am
There are grounds for optimism but also signs of irrational exuberance

The poorest countries may owe less to China than first thought

4 July 2020, 1:00 am
Still, China lends more than the members of the Paris Club combined

Trade finance stumbles into the digital era

4 July 2020, 1:00 am
Covid-19 forces the world’s most complicated paper chase to modernise

A Latin American economic tragedy

2 July 2020, 3:59 pm
The region’s latest woes fit a long-standing pattern

As foreign banks circle, China plots an “aircraft-carrier” defence

2 July 2020, 3:59 pm
The government may let banks launch brokerages to fend off foreign marauders

How resilient are the banks?

2 July 2020, 3:59 pm
If today’s lenders were run like they were in 2008 they would be in huge trouble

Why zero interest rates might lead to currency volatility

2 July 2020, 3:59 pm
There is little scope for them to adjust to economic trouble. So something else must

America’s housing market is so far unfazed by recession

2 July 2020, 3:59 pm
The property market seems strangely oblivious to the economic carnage around it

Will labour reforms in India work?

25 June 2020, 4:00 pm
Jobs are protected on paper but precarious in practice

Economists grapple with their race problem

25 June 2020, 4:00 pm
Greater openness to people and ideas should enhance their understanding of the world

What if the dotcom boom and bust hadn’t happened?

25 June 2020, 4:00 pm
Value investing might not have the same moral authority as today

The IMF downgrades its global growth forecasts

25 June 2020, 4:00 pm
High debts and high asset prices worry Washington wonks

China’s prodigious exporters have some new tricks

25 June 2020, 4:00 pm
The country’s export share has expanded during the pandemic

Is investors’ love affair with commercial property ending?

25 June 2020, 1:00 am
After covid-19, the investment world will become more discriminating

How Wirecard fooled most of the people all of the time

25 June 2020, 1:00 am
A financial scandal at the once-feted firm leaves Germany reeling

China is the world’s factory, more than ever

23 June 2020, 1:00 am
Its export share has expanded during the pandemic. But is this the high-water mark?

The economics of reparations

18 June 2020, 3:51 pm
The difficulties of working out how to compensate the descendants of slaves

China’s poverty line is not as stingy as commentators think

18 June 2020, 3:51 pm
Nor is China as poor as Li Keqiang implies

The Fed has been supporting markets. Now it must find ways to boost growth

18 June 2020, 3:51 pm
Economists expect it to begin yield-curve control in September

The euro area’s stimulus is less stingy than in past crises

18 June 2020, 3:51 pm
Even so, more stimulus will be needed this year

The successes of the Fed’s dollar-swap lines

18 June 2020, 3:51 pm
America’s central bank shines in a global role it resents

New research casts light on the pandemic’s effects on resource allocation

18 June 2020, 3:51 pm
Capital markets are signalling that lasting change is in the works

To understand the new wave of small investors, look to China

18 June 2020, 3:51 pm
Speculation is as old as the hills, but you can count on some variations

As the virus rages on shore, merchant seamen are stranded on board

18 June 2020, 1:00 am
The merchant seamen who keep the world warmed and fed are trapped in floating prisons

Covid-19 has squeezed migrants’ remittances to their families

15 June 2020, 1:00 am
A new report highlights the potential gains from digitisation

Investment in oil supply has collapsed. It may not roar back

13 June 2020, 1:00 am
Plunging investment, a battered cartel and a new fight over oil supply

Why are bank bosses sounding more optimistic about loan losses?

11 June 2020, 3:49 pm
They were hyper-prudent in April. Now the worst-case scenario might be off the cards

The yuan has been one of the world’s most stable major currencies

11 June 2020, 3:49 pm
That is partly by design, and partly through luck

India avoids junk status

11 June 2020, 3:49 pm
Rating agencies seem more optimistic than Indian commentators

The reasons behind the spectacular rally in metal prices

11 June 2020, 3:49 pm
Quite a lot of the story seems to be about China

Economic research documents black Americans’ struggle for equality

11 June 2020, 1:00 am
History shows that progress towards equality is followed by a racist backlash

What the early 1980s implies for unemployment today

11 June 2020, 1:00 am
A past recession may prove a useful guide to the recovery

Can Hong Kong remain a global financial centre?

6 June 2020, 1:00 am
The $10trn financial hub is in the eye of a geopolitical storm

American unemployment falls, but normality is still far away

5 June 2020, 1:00 am
The question remains: how many jobs have gone for good?

ESG investors get their heads around social risks

4 June 2020, 3:47 pm
Thanks to covid-19, these woolly risk factors are in the limelight

Americans saved a record chunk of their incomes in April

4 June 2020, 3:47 pm
The economic recovery depends on their willingness to splash the cash

Japan probes the limits of economic policy

4 June 2020, 3:47 pm
Including loan guarantees, fiscal support this year will amount to 40% of GDP

Is there a role for options insurance in equity portfolios?

4 June 2020, 3:47 pm
Nassim Taleb and Cliff Asness, two high-level thinkers on finance, disagree

America’s public-pension funding crisis worsens

4 June 2020, 3:47 pm
Funding ratios have fallen and the cost of provision has risen

Downturns tend to reduce gender inequality. Not under covid-19

4 June 2020, 1:00 am
Women’s unemployment has risen more than men’s

The pandemic could lead statisticians to change how they estimate GDP

30 May 2020, 1:00 am
Data gaps are rife, but statisticians may eventually understand better how the economy works

For the first time in 30 years, China has no GDP target

30 May 2020, 1:00 am
The government will not set one this year, reflecting the pandemic’s uncertainties

Can private-equity firms turn a crisis into an opportunity?

30 May 2020, 1:00 am
Their performance matters both for investors and the wider economy

The World Bank lands Carmen Reinhart as chief economist

30 May 2020, 1:00 am
Ms Reinhart is one of the most widely cited economists in the world

Will covid-19 halt the rise of private equity in Europe?

28 May 2020, 3:48 pm
PE firms are better prepared for a downturn, and seem to be more welcome

China’s economists debate deficit monetisation

28 May 2020, 3:48 pm
Inflation hawks seem to be prevailing—in theory, if not entirely in practice

What is the link between inflation and equity returns?

28 May 2020, 3:48 pm
Stocks are a decent inflation hedge in the long run, but over shorter horizons, there is an inverse relationship

The legacy of Alberto Alesina

28 May 2020, 1:00 am
He traced the links between culture, politics and fiscal policy

Covid-19 forced trading floors to close. They’ll be back

25 May 2020, 1:00 am
They are likely to last for as long as traders want them

Should the Fed cut rates below zero?

23 May 2020, 1:00 am
Negative rates are not a cure for what ails the global economy

A memo to candidates for the WTO’s next boss

23 May 2020, 1:00 am
What Roberto Azevêdo’s prospective successor should expect

Tracking the economic recovery

23 May 2020, 1:00 am
Though some lockdowns are being lifted, economies are not roaring back

Sovereign-wealth funds face lean years

21 May 2020, 3:53 pm
Revenues have fallen, and governments are eyeing their riches

Why interest rates are so high in Africa

21 May 2020, 3:53 pm
Banks generate high returns, but have steep costs

Why you need to read Jane Austen to appreciate perpetual bonds

21 May 2020, 3:53 pm
It takes a nineteenth-century perspective to see the merit of consols

Why the pandemic could eventually lower inequality

16 May 2020, 1:00 am
History suggests it could precipitate shifts towards a more equal income distribution

How to fight an economic crisis in a monetary union

16 May 2020, 1:00 am
Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, lays out his framework

Award

14 May 2020, 3:47 pm

Turkey’s defence of the lira has been unwise and ineffective

14 May 2020, 3:47 pm
The country is trying to strengthen its currency—at the expense of weaker banks

America files a new financial salvo at Beijing

14 May 2020, 1:00 am
The White House seeks to stop a government pension fund investing in China

Could travel bubbles offer a route to economic recovery?

14 May 2020, 1:00 am
The economic gains would be large, but the health requirements could be vexing

Could the pandemic give America’s labour movement a boost?

9 May 2020, 1:00 am
Gig workers are organising, in tech-savvy ways

In bleak times for banks, India's digital-payments system wins praise

9 May 2020, 1:00 am
Digital loans could be next

Emerging markets launch QE, too

7 May 2020, 3:55 pm
Unconventional monetary policy is not just for the rich world

With oil prices depressed, China presides over a buyer’s market

7 May 2020, 3:55 pm
Oil and gas suppliers are toiling to secure Chinese demand

Credit-rating agencies are back under the spotlight

7 May 2020, 3:55 pm
This time is different from the financial crisis—sort of

Losses by central banks are nothing to fear

7 May 2020, 3:55 pm
They do not reflect financial doom. But they expose the fragility of independence

A perky stockmarket v a glum economy

7 May 2020, 1:00 am
Explaining the stockmarket rally

For microfinance lenders, covid-19 is an existential threat

5 May 2020, 1:00 am
Yet, in the post-pandemic world, the world’s poor will need them more than ever

In many ways, stockmarkets have been extraordinary in 2020

3 May 2020, 1:00 am
How this year’s crash differs from bear markets of the past

Politicians in America and Europe scramble to help small firms

2 May 2020, 1:00 am
But their schemes are meeting with mixed success

America’s large firms can count on generous government support

2 May 2020, 1:00 am
But there are strings attached